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My picks literally just hit the site this second.
http://www.ufcjunkie.com
Here's a summary of my predictions:
Summary of Full Card picks for UFC 66
# Andrei Arlovski -471 : KO rd.1 : no action
# Gabriel Gonzaga -276 : sub rd.1 : 2.76 units to win 1 unit
# Anthony Perosh +141 : sub rd.2 : no action
# Michael Bisping -381 : KO rd.1 : 3.81 units to win 1 unit
# Yushin Okami -421 : TKO rd.3 : 4.21 units to win 1 unit
# Jason MacDonald +191 : sub rd.3 : .52 units to win 1 unit
# Tony DeSouza +126 : sub rd.1 : .25 units to win .315 units
# Forrest Griffin -266 : TKO rd.2 : 2.66 units to win 1 unit
# Tito Ortiz +241 : TKO rd.4 : 1 unit to win 2.41 units
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Performify, I am absolutely SPEECHLESS at your write up. First off, are you predictions what you predict or what you hope to happen? I only ask because you believe Lidell is the favorite, but then predict Ortiz to TKO him in rd 4. That doesn't make sense to me.
Also, I have never loaded up on lines above -250 before, with the exception of dancing with the stars and Fedor fights...but it is your previous bets which have made me more willing to do so, hence my action on Lidell and Arlovski.
What's more interesting is that while I have small money on Okami, Perosh, Forest, and Bispring(more for action than for value), I am seriously considering betting against Gonzaga. Never in a million years would I have guessed this to be the card where we have such different opinions but I do 100% respect yours and what is happening is that I am seeing sports betting to be just that...betting(gambling).
In closing, I am so excited for UFC 66 and I do see the most value in this order
Lidell
Arlovski
Marrera,
So GL to you, and GL to me. I really can't find a reason to give Tito Ortiz better than a 20% chance, but I was much more conservative in my Kelly calculation. I'm on the fence about Macdonald and Leben btw, so I think I see some slight value in Macdonald simply because of his +191 line. But I may decide to just put $50 on Leben as an action bet...
In closing, I think this will be my play
Liddell over Ortiz, 4.6u to win 2u
AA over Cruz .92 to win .2
Marrero .38u to win 1u
Forest over Jardin .887u to win .3u
6.787u risked, looking to win 3.5u.
GL, see you on the 30th