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Old 12-27-2006, 05:57 PM
_Sundance _Sundance is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 30
Default Re: 22 set - Flop fold thoughts

OP, surely villian has a much bigger chance of having TT->QQ, AhKh, AhQh than 99/33 BEFORE the raise on the flop - I would put it at about 90%/10% (possibly more given the 9 and 3 on the flop).

Perhaps you can comment on why you so radicially reduce those holdings given his flop raise. In the hand you appear to have no interest in the pot, if UTG calls it creates a $500 pot leaving CO $200 ish + the chance of pricing a draw for you. Say he has QQ, does he really respect CO's action enough not to get it in here? If he has AhKh are you sure he doesn't make the attractive call pre-flop and the raise on the flop?

How would you play these holdings if you were UTG in this situation?

I would push here and expect UTG to call about 20% of the time holding 99/33, fold 70% of the time holding overpair/draw, and maybe call 10% of time with either AA/big draw. So I see the push here as about $150+ ev assuming CO folds, probably more with a call given your read. Calling may be better if you think you can extract well priced bets from UTG holding an overpair and read it well if a H comes.
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