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Old 12-19-2006, 02:21 PM
Freelancer Freelancer is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Embrace the variance !!
Posts: 2,215
Default Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250

I'll give it a shot because I'm a sucker for free money...

1) You raised 43$ preflop implying that you mistyped, your normal raise is probably 4$ and since the 3 is close villains can easily assume you mistyped and push with ATC. Its also good for metagame because your image will change towards maniac, considering that your image is already that of a bluffy guy (you run bad so you have to fold more often so people assume you bet with air more often) and you might as well turn it into a maniac image so you just have to worry about value betting.
2) You snapcalled because you are assuming villains range is very wide, with the added fact that villain pushed after thinking a bit implies that his hand isn't a autopush hand like a big pair or AK giving you even better odds. Add in the fact of metagame and you have a quick call.
3) If you don't do this with any regularity it will win money in the long run, this is assuming you pull this off once in a blue moon. Its good for image and this will also earn you more money, I doubt I have to mention that its a high variance play. This needs thinking players however, if villain will only push with QQ+,AQ+ you will lose money in the long run.
4) Your snapcall makes money as explained in point 1. This is assuming his range is very wide for pushing, and I think it is. With the metagame and pot odds mixed in its probably slightly +ev to call.
5) You already decided to call when you raised, so you might as well snapcall.

Bonus:
Lets see;
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

61,642,944 games 0.125 secs 493,143,552 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 69.1440 % 66.34% 02.80% { AQo }
Hand 2: 30.8560 % 28.06% 02.80% { A8s }

So you have ~30% equity with ~143$ in the pot and 57$ for you to call.
To break even you need;
143*(3/10)=42.9
Its however 57$ to call, so your losing about 14$ every time you make the call.

My math is screwed up so I'm curious if I got it right. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]


Ps. How are you going to control the editing sprew of people after seeying other responces?
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