Re: Check-raise bluff on the river
The thing is I am quite sure I am beaten, either by AJ or JJ, or else by a straight (he could have raised on turn with TQK, especially if they are suited). I know that if he does not have the nuts or very close to it, I have good folding equity.
My main concern is the importance of the read, and the level of thinking I should use. He twice bet half-pot on the river with the nuts. So I should fold here. BUT he knows I know that he bets half pot on the river with monsters, because he made a comment about it a few minutes earlier. So he could be imitating his previous plays. I do not think he is tricky enough to anticipate my thinking and betting this way with the nuts in order to make me think it is a bluff because I know his betting patterns.
So there are two possibilities :
- he may be simply betting his hand the way he always does with the nuts.
- he may be using the read he knows I have to bluff.
As I am writing this, it seems that maybe calling was a better option actually. This way I can be sure of seeing his hand, and so to have a very valuable read on his level of thinking.
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