[fabadam]

I kind of like it. I will have it in my remind list for a while, because it's been too long I did this statistical math stuff.

FWIW, I think realistically a 95% confidence interval is asking too much in typical micro-limits environments. The reality of the matter is that you have between 30 and 100 hands of data for most villains, if that.

I'm looking for ways to corroborate stats based on small samples with other stats. This is one reason why I keep people's BB/100 winrate in my PAHUD popups. Yes it's meaningless by itself, but if I see someone with 74/50 stats after 25 hands, I look at the winrate. If it's 250 BB/100, they've simply had a hot run for a few orbits. If it's -98 BB/100, he's most likely a donk.
None of these are certainties, and nowhere near 95% confidence, but it's the best I've got, so it will have to do.

What would be very interesting, is to see which stats converge quickly, and which don't. My gut feeling is that VPIP/PFR and overall AF are fairly good after 100 hands, but nearly everything else is entirely meaningless by itself.