[vin17]

Not to nitpick but...
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The Wells signing was on overpay IMO, but it's probably the only way he was going to stay in Toronto. He is a very valuable player.

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I wouldn't go as far as to say it was an overpay. Yes it is a very large contract, but Wells is arguably a top 3 CF who's in the prime of his career and even though his slugging numbers have bounced around a bit, I fully expect them to continue to be as good as they were last year (and with the Thomas signing, to increase). He, along with Halladay are the leaders/cornerstones of the franchise and along with Halladay is a 'home grown' All-Star. Also, this was a statement to Wells, MLB and most importantly the fans that this team is committed to fielding a winner. Needless to say, hopefully he can stay out of injury trouble.
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...but you lost a well above average guy in Lilly, and Burnett is never a good bet to make 30 starts. Chacin is probably better than replacement but your rotation is really in awful shape.

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When you say 'above average', are you referring to his career record of 59-58. Sure he can be lights out when he's on, but as a longtime Jays follower I can tell you that there's been too many times where's he been knocked around which prevented him from finding a groove. In other words, the Cubs overpaid by about 1.5+ million/yr and to top it off him not being a ground ball pitcher in windy Wrigley should be fun. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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In the pen, B.J. Ryan is a relief ace, Speier is very good, Scott Downs is a good long guy, Frasor and League and Tallet are all good relievers. Basically, the bullpen is a huge strength of this Jays team

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As mentioned, we lost Speier. I would put BJ Ryan behind only K-Rod and Mo Rivera, he is just that good. Frasor had a terrible first half but bounced back in the second half. League will hopefully become the permanent setup guy and may work as a spot starter during a rotation injury. As it stands, the Jays could do with a solid 8th inning guy so that when Halladay and *hopefully* Burnett have gone 7-8 innings the previous days before, the 3-5 guys will only be expected to put up 5-6 solid innings. So ya, the Jays bullpen isn't exactly a strength right now.
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The bottom three spots of your lineup will be a real weakness, as not much can be expected of your set of middle infielders.

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Unless you have Utley or Cano in your MIF, then you can't place too much offensive pressure on them. I think Adam Hill (already a .300 hitter) will continue to develop into a solid hitter. As for SS, the current tandem of McDonald/Clayton is very good defensively (the main concern) and I think the other 8 spots will make up for the lack of offensive punch from this spot. And I think Zaun will be just as good, if not better than last year, as he won't be platooning with Molina, unless there's a change.
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I expect this year for the Jays to fall back quite a bit.

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Not if JP and the increased payroll have anything to do with it...

I should probably say I typed this out without reading the last paragraph of your post but I thought it was worth posting anyways.