Re: Movies 12/15 to 12/18
[ QUOTE ]
This type of analysis is just plain wrong, as the movie market is very elastic depending mainly on interest in the films. There is a limit, of course, but that is determined by the overall box office, not the # of movies past a certain threshhold.
[/ QUOTE ]Maybe. Maybe not [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Quality/Marketing/type of movie and box office total $ capacity are more important factors than # of movies of at a threshold. However, I always ask, "why are they releasing the movie this week?". Openers have typically done poorly in this time frame. Additionally, you cant take blockbusters and divide up for future years. So, if historically the results for wide release openers is (in $M): 100,5,5,5,5,60,4,6,8,90,8,3,12,16,50.....then I have a hard time saying that 20,20,20 makes sense. The results can sometimes be a binomial model - i.e, if huge blockbuster then 1 if mediocre movie then 0.
At the end of the day, I am simply saying, "I havent ever seen 3 big successful movies released in this timeframe before so I have room to pause." I am not saying, "dont bet the over on 3 $20M movies at the same time in this timeframe because it cant happen". It is simply another factor. If I really liked the over on all 3 of the movies this week then I would ignore the factor. If I am close to a coin flip then I will take it into account.
|