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There hasnt been 3 $20M+ movies (openers or otherwise) on this weekend for at least the last 10 years. In fact, it hasnt even been close. I have a hard time thinking there is that much love in the box office to support 3 +$20M movies, especially given the dismal showing last week.


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Hi Utah, nice talking with you again. You made this point previously in fall once, saying that there haven't been 3 $10M+ fall movies in forever, and that was wrong. This type of analysis is just plain wrong, as the movie market is very elastic depending mainly on interest in the films. There is a limit, of course, but that is determined by the overall box office, not the # of movies past a certain threshhold.

This weekend (3rd weekend of December) is a huge one where studios release big guns, and it is often an enormous increase over the 1st 2 weeks of December (or just 1st week, if a good movie was actually released in the 2nd week).

There have been past years where we saw the box office get in the $70's for a single movie alone. Last year the openers got $62M+. In the last 5 years, there have been weekends with openers getting in the $90's, and in the high $70's.

So yeah, I think that this weekend could easily break $62 mil for the openers (combined lines of 22, 22, and 18), if all of the huge interest being shown gets follow-through over the weekend. Question remains if it will, but all of the indicators so far have been tremendous.