Re: Movies 12/15 to 12/18
The comps for Charlotte's Web suggest it should go well Over. Babe and Stuart Little are probably the 2 best comps, as 1 is a talking pig family film, and the other is a kids movie based off of a popular book. Charlotte's Web should be a bigger draw than either of these, as it is one of the biggest children's bestsellers of all time, and both kids and their parents, particularly moms, should be interested. Parents should almost all remember it as a great book, and the movie is getting crazy good reviews, with a stellar 90% on Rotten Tomatoes and 8.0 on Metacritic.
Charlotte's Web has some really low lines out there, at 22 and 23, with the Over at either +odds or reasonable odds to take. With the enormous theater count at +566 theaters (one of the biggest I've ever seen) for 3,566 theaters and multiple screens in them, Charlotte only needs a 6.17k per theater average to make the line.
Babe garnered a 5.5k PTA way back in 1995. Inflation adjusted at 4%, that's an 8.8k PTA today. Even at a 2% rate, that's a 7k PTA, but as we all know, movie tickets have gotten a lot more expensive over the years, and 4% is probably still a conservative figure. If Charlotte got that 8.8k PTA that Babe would have, that would be a $31+ million opening. I'm not expecting anything that high, but it just shows you it's potential, as Charlotte's Web should be an even bigger draw than Babe.
The book is definitely a bigger draw than Stuart Little. Stuart had the same near-Christmas release date back in 1999, and is a very good comp, being a children's book movie, with Charlotte's being a bigger bestseller than Stuart. Stuart got a 5.2k PTA, which would be a 6.9k PTA today, and would mean that at Stuart Little levels, Charlotte would get a $24.6 million opening.
Also, late tracking is much better than normal for a kids' film, and suggests that Charlotte should be near the top of the weekend, in the mid-20's.
So taking the Over at seems pretty solid to me, either on it's own, or to go for a middle, for those who got in under the higher early lines.
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