Re: TPTK but there\'s a good chance he has an overpair
If we check, UTG will probably check to the raiser, who will bet this flop virtually 100% of the time. Then we can c/r and force UTG to call two bets cold if he wants to stay in the pot. Assuming MP1 just calls our c/r, we are leading the turn.
This isn't about making a free card play because we figure we're probably ahead on this flop. It's about protecting our hand. It's going to be hard for UTG to profitably call two bets on the flop, and MP1 will frequently fold overcards to a turn bet (correctly when he has AK, perhaps incorrectly when he has KQ).
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