Federal versus State action
Sorry, I should have written more clearly. The quagmire referred to was once a law was passed. The startegy behind 18 months seems to be to drain that swamp before the industry has to wade across it once the law is passed.
I thought the regulatory hurdles, i.e. getting a specific something, (program, system, software) approved once it is legal, were interesting. If a law passed January 31st, saying online poker is legal for licensed companies to the US market, but we first need to promulgate regulations to qualify them and their systems, then the results would be disasterous, especially if states adopt conflicting standards.
I do think a bill to "study" will pass. What I had not considered was why the study then needed 18 months. Upon reflection, and after hearing from "server-based" gaming efforts under the current State regulations, it became clear that 18 months would be needed just to settle upon regulatory standards.
So, I certainly can agree your 3 year projected timeframe seems reasonable.
The othe point was that I see no reasonable political chance for a "poker" exemption at the Federal Level, but nothing to prevent a State from leaping aboard the gravy train, as technology and regulatory aims converge.
As someone like Harrah's pushes development and State level Regulatory approval of server-based games, which is going on now, I think there may be some State which will seize the day, and try and jump on the revenue then available for Intra-State gaming under the UIGE Act. States are very protective of two things, control over state issues like gaming and potential revenue from gaming.
The impetus for an aggreagtion of State sites into a good sized player pool would follow, as the States would see no reason to wait to lose the potential revenue once some Federal body weighs in. Remember, there is no Federal Lottery, but there is Powerball.
States can, and should, move more quickly to expressly legalize that revenue stream into their coffers, than wait for a 3 year Federal timeline; whether they do remains to be seen.
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