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Old 12-09-2006, 04:12 AM
Supwithbates Supwithbates is offline
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Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,606
Default Re: **uNL Concept of the week: Week 5, Reverse Implied Odds**

I keep losing with AA to lower sets. While I can get away sometimes, there are often boards where I know I'm stacking KK/QQ and if they're smoothcalling raises/3bets with KK/QQ preflop then it's hard to know when I'm up against a set and when I'm good. Pot control obv. doesn't work if they're trying to build a big pot.

Here's an example:
.10/.25 blinds
Folded to Hero (25$)
Hero in MP3 raises to 1$
Button (30$ behind) calls 1$
BB (14$ behind) calls .75

Flop:
T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB checks
Hero bets 2.50$
Button folds
Villian raises to $5.00

A call commits me, a fold seems weak. But I don't see villians check/minraising with anything that AA beats, so I generally fold here anyways.

Now what happens here though?
Hero (30$) is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero raises to 1$ (.10/.25 blinds)
CO (20$) calls 1$, blinds fold
Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero bets $1.75, Villian raises to $5.00
What's the plan here? We're suddenly OOP and the raise could mean a lot! But from my experience, even in 25NL most villians know enough about reverse implied odds that they're not trying to get allin without AA/KK or a set, and it's a set more often than it's KK. Again, folding here seems weak, but how often are we REALLY good? Another problem here is that many villians WILL raise the flop then fold if we call/raise/bet any more. So this is another case of reverse implied odds.

Now change the setting: Villian smoothcalls the same flop bet. Turn blanks, we've got a rag rainbow non-drawy flop. Should we be going for pot control here or trying to stack JJ/QQ/KK?

I feel as if every time I win with AA/KK it's a small pot, and every time I lose I'm losing 1/4-1/3 my stack. And it seems counterintuitive anyways to try to build a big pot with AA then shut down once I run into resistance. It's like I only get called when I'm beat...

Now most of these examples in this thread refer to weaker hands like JJ/AJ and such; I'm not having a problem folding these hands, but am more specifically running into problems with AA/KK. It just seems a lot harder to laydown AA regularly on uncoordinated flops just because someone raises us. And I have not yet once gotten allin in this situation and been against anything but a set.
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