[FG Kicking Mule]

I think you have it right. The hedge would be considered a positive EV bet, but only in tandem with the original bet.

In the example I gave, the hedge itself is definitely a negative EV bet. You are betting $1 to win 99 cents on something that will win 50% of the time. As you said, the hedge still makes sense because the positive EV on the amount of commission that you will avoid will be greater than the negative EV of your hedge bet. Therefore, your overall EV has improved.