Re: 3 High Stakes Cash Hands
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hand 2, I think you're too deep to make that play
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Maybe. Im not convinced though. Any reasonably sized check raise almost prices you in if he pushes. I also think he has air here a pretty decent portion of the time, and sometimes a flush draw, which he hopefully folds. I think he could also fold a semi-big hand to me here.
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I did some math. I assumed that every time he calls you're up against 2 pair or better.
He needs to fold 65% of the time for you to turn a profit with this move. (You win $9200 when your c/r takes down the pot, you lose (27.2K - (1/6*60K))= $17200 when it doesn't.)
It's certainly debatable as to whether he would fold that often.
However, I think a lot of one pair hands that would fold would also check the turn, and I think that running flush draws, which you put into his range, are really a miniscule proportion of his holdings.
If you only had 20K behind he would need to fold more like 45% of the time to make the play +EV and it would look a lot better to me.
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