[MyTurn2Raise]

this thread, obviously, makes me vomit

Michigan is at best 25% to beat Ohio State on a nuetral field and that is a reach

I don't know how many ways to state this:
Ohio State thoroughly owned the first match-up between the two teams and would be expected to again.
I'm not sure what you guys look at when watching a football game, but looking at the final score is the equivalent to results-oriented bs thinking in playing poker.
tOSU did whatever it wanted, whenever it wanted with the ball.
Ohio State had 503 yards on 70 offensive plays. That is what, 7.2 ypp or so.
Michigan had a very respectable 397 yards on 65 plays...6.1 ypp.
That is over a full yard per play difference. Yards per play is the best predictor of points scored by any team. A one yard per play difference works out to roughly 8 points difference. Here, you have over a 9 points difference between the teams.

Then, you get into the turnovers. Turnovers appear to be dumb luck. Often, viewing a game, they are just that. However, there are precursors and situations that do force a high number of turnovers. It's not based on previous turnovers in a game. Turnovers in one game are a terrible predictor of turnovers in another. There are a few things that are much better. They are tackles for loss per play run and the number of plays run in 3rd and 8 or longer situations. In both of those, Ohio State was expected to have an edge and did indeed have the edge in the game.

Basically, the line going in was Ohio State -7. Everything that happened on the field suggested that Michigan was outplayed by more than 7 points...much closer to 12-15 range. It was an outlier final score for Michigan to only lose by 3 points. Giving my rudimentary range of outcomes (my handicapping tools aren't that refined yet), it was a top 20% outcome for Michigan.
Even allowing for a nuetral field instead of at Ohio State, there is no way any smart money should get anywhere near the Wolverines at a 7 point spread.
Michigan has little chance.