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Old 11-30-2006, 09:58 AM
apefish apefish is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: To the pain
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Default Re: 11 NL Party folding an overpair

FWIW.
I put the queens against exactly AJ off and KhTh on this flop to simulate the "worst of the best scenarios" with no hearts taken up.
the queens are 40 percent equity here, the AJ only 14 percent, and the KThearts is 45 percent.
Thats the two overcard, top pair, flush draw bad nonset situation.

It's hard even to say you are an underdog to stay alive because you will be up against the TPGK with a big enough side pot to matter at times in an overwhelming favorite position.
If someone has a set you are in rough shape- but discounting that to a smaller percentage of the times you are a ~1.5 to 1 dog to win the entire pot if you call ~2900 into what would be ~6000 at that point.
And some of those times you dont win the entire pot you do win like a 1550 chip side pot.

Someone can do ICM calcs from there factoring also for the side pot keeping you alive etc with some weighted ranges- but this spot seems okay.

If you give yourself KK same suits as the queens and give the players AJ off and QThearts here it changes to almost 47 percent equity for the KK while QThh drops to below 40.
On a QQ versus AJ versus AhTh type hand the queens are nearly 50 percent to hold.

Sure- once in a great while you are going to run into a situation where you are up against a set and a decent draw or something and are only 5 percent to win etc- but that's poker and I don't think it happens enough to pass up what is likely a decent spot at this buyin.
Against one person I go broke here all day long. I don't think having another person in the pot changes much of that.

If I see a calc that shows this untrue I would consider folding this spot more readily in the future.

In short- I dont think folding > calling here by much if any. I just think at $11 stts I would rather not give my opponent too much credit in spots like these for plays like pushing a set into my PF raise.

Tough spot. I know I am more likely to hit call than fold here.
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