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Old 11-29-2006, 07:08 PM
TomCollins TomCollins is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Approving of Iron\'s Moderation
Posts: 7,517
Default Re: A Much Simpler Version Of The \"Blackjack Paradox\"

4 Cases:

They both see red- 1/2*25/51 = 24.5%
They both see black 1/2*25/51 = 24.5%
Bottom is black, other is red 1/2*26/51 = 25.5%
Bottom is red, other is black 1/2*26/51 = 25.5%

Using cummulative knowlege, knowing what both of those cards are, we can assess the probability that they will win-

51% of the time, there is no advantage. 49% of the time, there is an advantage, but it is even MORE than the player figured.

So 49% of the time, the player bets more with a chance of winning 52% of the time. The other 51% of the time, it wins 50% of the time. Overall, the player wins 51% of the time, which is identical to 26/51.
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