A Much Simpler Version Of The \"Blackjack Paradox\"
It wasn't meant to be about black jack. So here is an extremely trivial example of the concept I was trying to illustrate.
For some reason a casino decides to offer a dead even simplistic table game. They shuffle a single deck and deal out one card. Players can bet whether it is red or black. That's all there is to it. Reshuffle after every round.
Two players at the table have found an edge and unbeknownst to each other are betting the maximum with their edge. One of them is catching a glimpse of the bottom card. And he of course bets the opposite color. The other player is also catching aqglimpse of one card but not the bottom one. So they are often betting the opposite way. Meanwhile logic tells us that they will both win 26 out of 51 bets on average. Does that make sense? If so, can someone NOT an expert in probability make the numbers work out?
|