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Old 11-28-2006, 10:18 PM
JKratzer JKratzer is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2003
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Default Re: Deep Live Hand Vs. Very Good-looking Man

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I think this is a clear fold unless he is an absolute donk. The board is double suited and we have neither suit in our hand, so the chances he has the straight with a flush redraw is pretty decent. Not to mention that something like Q9 is definitely in his range and would be a standard flop call with a straight draw to the nuts and likely stacking a lower straight. His enourmous raise makes me think that he is specifically looking to get all in against a 9 here which he doesn't think will fold. It would be a really ballsy move with anything but a straight here, because he really shouldn't expect anybody to lay down a straight here regardless if you will or not. I'm not entirely sure of the equity you have for a split pot, but I would venture to say that it's not worth it to risk your entire stack on chopping a pretty small pot when you could very reasonably be drawing dead to a chop (3 outs) or be up against the same hand with a flush redraw which has 9 outs against you (up to 12 if he has something like K9).

I guess that might make you exploitable theoretically that he can make this move with the same hand as you and steal the pot, but that's pretty silly to even consider in a donkish live game. This is a fold, IMO.

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i like and agree with this analysis.
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