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Old 11-23-2006, 11:22 AM
knicknut knicknut is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
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Default Re: stock props at bodog

AAPL's implied vol in the options marketplace right now is less than 40

40% * $90 * sqrt (25 trading days / 250 trading days) = $11.4

That puts this move $19.7/$11.4 = 1.72 standard deviations. That corresponds to a 95% chance, to break even we need 57%. Easy money. (The percentage is slightly less than that because it's any trading day in 2006, not the end, but there's still tons of value.

If you want to see it another way, those $110 calls are selling for less than $0.05.

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