[gergery]

1. I think Villain is weak after his check. I don’t see him wanting to give free cards with a made hand like a set, straight or better two pair. The main question I’m asking myself is,

“What should I do if he check-raises me?”. I think a big draw is probably most likely if he pushes, so I probably need to call him. So if I bet say 200, maybe he just flat calls to make his hand, and that is bad from my perspective since that prices him in. But if I bet say 1k here, he might think he has little fold equity so might fold. However, if I bet 500, maybe he thinks that is now enough to win, and that I can also fold, so he pushes.

“What pot size do I want to have if he calls or raises me here? – For example, I bet 500 he calls then pot is 1700 on river with 2000 behind? Is that dynamic good for me, or do I prefer betting 750 now, he calls then pot is 2200 with 1800 behind. If a scare card hits with pot at 1700, maybe he bets 1k and I can call and still be alive. But if pot is 200, he probably just pushes if betting, so I must put tourney life on the line to call. So the river dynamic must be taken into account now for my turn bet size.

2. Range of hands is still fairly wide. However, I think strong made hands would be discounted, since many Hero’s in this position might take a free card and Villain hence wants to come out firing rather than give free cards. Whereas strong draws here and much more likely to check-raise.

3. I bet ~450. I plan to call a check-raise allin putting him on a draw as most likely now. I’ll reevaluate if he checks-raises to 1500 or so as that seems much stronger. If he calls, I probably check behind on the river if the card is scary and value bet small otherwise.

-g