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Old 11-19-2006, 10:56 PM
drzen drzen is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Donkeytown
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Default Re: Who raises this river?

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The majority of his range will either be nothing or something like 2-pair/flush/straight. Just don't see any value in a raise.

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I have another value question. I have QQ. I bet, a guy calls and is all in for 1.5sb, shortstacked guy 3bets, LAGgy guy caps and shortie is now allin too, I call the two back to me.

Flop comes KdTd3d. LAG bets out. I think he'll cap with a wide range, so this bet could be AdX, AK/KQ/KJ, QQ/JJ/TT, maybe even KT, AT or maybe some other big aces that have whiffed. It could just about be 99 but I think that's a bit loose even for this guy to have capped with. However, we're only playing for a small sidepot, so I think Ks are a lot more likely than nothings. I raised preflop from EP after all, so I likely have at least smaller aces (without Ad) beat. Anyway, I call and call again on a turn 4. You've guessed it. I think I'm in a quasi WA/WB position. He either has a K and I'm beaten, or he doesn't and I'm ahead. He might have more than a few outs, but he's betting the hand if he does, so I don't need to "charge" him for it (if he has AdX, where X is not a T, he has 12 outs against me, so his bets are not for value). I don't think I can valueraise, because I don't beat enough of his range, and some of the hands that beat have those 12 outs.

The river is a 5. He checks.

Should I bet? I felt that if I did and he raised, I'd have a tough call, probably not for the whole pot. But here he could have hands that might call, although I don't see why he'd slow down with a pair of Ts. For that matter, I don't see why he'd slow down with AdX. I raised and I've called bets on the flop and turn. I must have *something*. So his only chance to win this pot is to fire on the river if he has nothing. In this case, I don't see how he's calling with the worst of his hands. AT is about all I can see calling here.

As soon as I checked, before I even saw his cards, I was thinking "that was weak". Was it? Does he call with more? I think I was fixed on the small side pot and didn't consider the big main pot that would entice him to call with absolutely anything.
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