[xorbie]

all,

here's how i see things. soah is, in my mind, not lynchable today. i believed madtown generally before, but in all seriousness it's quite easy for him as either evil or as neutral to have peeked liselle and want to fake. think about how sick of a play it would be for him to do this as evil... there's almost no way we lynch him today either.

zurvan has worked through most of the possibilites, and we really don't have too many options. we can try to find the last evil out of:

tabako
traz
zurvan
boiler
trufloridagator

now you will notice some people going after trufloridagator... i can't stress enough how ridiculous this is. he is a villager. i think the last evil (if in that group) is either tokyo, boiler or tabako.

as for cyradis/toth, again i'm not sure. i think patton making his role claim as cyradis made the most sense. madtown might have then come out later to claim liselle when he saw that patton's bs claim wasn't being bought by people. it's also possible patton just came out at first as toth assuming everyone would buy it in the first place. or, again, this is a sick play as the last remaining evil.

what tabako says is also true... right now the village has a +1 advantage in aggregate over evil/neutral. after tonight presumably zero dies, toth is lynch, village has a +2 advantage tomorrow but if we look for the last evil and miss, we end up at a coinflip, meaning if we do find the evil the next day, all the evils/neutral would just coinflip it up and leave us in a neutral wining endgame.

so our chances of winning if we can GAURANTEE lynching toth today are P[finding evil on second day] + .75 P[finding evil on second day]) + .5 P[we don't find the evil]

since there are only maybe four legit candidates, we can put this at about .25 + .25 + .25 = .75 chance of winning. not bad, but this is only if we gaurantee lynch toth.

if you lynch me, village goes to neutral end game automatically. if we lynch patton and he's cyradis, ditto. ditto madtown cyradis.

so i think the correct play is to find someone who is either toth or evil in the most likely scenarios and lynch them.