[ThePortuguee]

Full Tilt 6-max, 1/2 NL, per usual I'm playing pretty LAG. I don't know a whole lot about the villain, but I havn't seen him do anything stupid, and I suspect he's probably reasonably competent.

He's got a little over 200 I cover.

UTG minraises to $4, two calls to me. I call on the button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Villain is in the SB and calls. BB Calls.

Flop ($24): T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villain bets $20, folds to me. I call.
Maybe this is a mistake, but I figured with top pair and gutshot Im correct to call here. Could be wrong.

Turn ($64): 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Villain bets $34. Okay. I'm not really sure. Im thinking he might be betting a draw, given the small bet. I figure I'm getting 3 to one on this call, I could be ahead, if not, I probably have at least 4 outs to improve, maybe more. I talk myself into a call. Maybe also wrong.

River ($132): 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Villain thinks for like three seconds then checks.

Okay. This is an interesting spot. I have two pair. Then the guy checks, now I'm not really sure what to do.

I've read a little bit about this concept called bet duality, and I'm wondering if maybe it applies here. THe basic idea is that in some spots, a bet can potentially fold a better hand, or get called by a worse hand, and in cases like that bets are often correct with marginal hands. I think I understand that correctly.

There's now a four-straight on board. Every draw got there. JQ, flush draw, etc. I thought about this, then I thought about his likely holdings:

- Pair of tens. This seems pretty likely. Anythign from JT-AT could have played this way. It's possible that a smaller ten than mine may have done this, given the drawiness of the board, but I dont consider this all that likely.

- Two pair. Okay this could be T6 or T9. I'm ahead of one of these, behind the other. We'll return to that in a sec.

- Set. Perfectly plausible.

Now here's the key: I think that I can basically rule out a draw here. Up until this point I thought he might be betting a strong draw, but his river check just doesn't make sense if that's true. If this assessment is correct, then we can reasonably conclude that he does not have a flush on a three-flushed, four-straighted board.

Now, here's the problem: is a bet correct? Consider this in light of the fact that he might find a fold of two pair or a set (I know, I know everyone says "Nobody folds sets," but if you were oging to do so, this seems like a pretty good spot).

But if I do bet, is it a pure bluff? Coudln't he do something stupid like call with AT, or T6?

I ended up betting $75. Lemme know what you think.