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Old 11-11-2006, 09:33 PM
josh_x josh_x is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 703
Default Re: QQ/diamond flop/second nut draw; fold or call?

I think you gotta call getting ~2:1 by my count.


31,680 games 0.010 secs 3,168,000 games/sec

Board: Kd 9d Td
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 43.8573 % 42.76% 01.10% { QdQh }
Hand 2: 56.1427 % 55.04% 01.10% { TT-99, AKs, KTs, QJs, 8d7d, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdKc, AdKh, AdKs, AhKd, AhKs, AsKd, AdQc, AdQh, AdQs, AdJc, AdJh, AdJs, QJo }



This range inlcudes sets (didnt inlcude KK), AKs, all AKo with a diamond, half without. QJs and QJo. 78s for a flush. KTs for two pair. AJ with Ace of diamonds, and AQ with ace of diamonds.

Unless i've miscounted the pot or forgot some hands it's a pretty clear call and hope. The guy behind makes things tougher, but i still think it's probably a call.

A lot of the hands that have you in trouble would raise that flop in the first place (sets + straights, no?), so i think his range is sufficiently weak that the chance of him overcalling doesn't make it a fold.
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