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Old 11-10-2006, 06:01 PM
dfan dfan is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 226
Default Re: 2 overcards + small draws: Mathematically incorrect to call an all

A question for Aaron - what did you mean by high low suited - K4s, Q2s, hands like that? Do these hands have a particular advantage in this situation, like you are unlikely to lose a lot of money with them since they are easy to let go if they only hit a pair?

BTW, here is villains equity if he only does this move with two pair or better:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 16.9022 % 16.90% 00.00% { KsQs }
Hand 2: 83.0978 % 83.10% 00.00% { TT-99, 22, T9s }

And here is his equity if he throws in a few random TPTK backdoor flush draws, missed pairs, some straight draw semibluffs, etc.:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 37.1029 % 37.04% 00.07% { KsQs }
Hand 2: 62.8971 % 62.83% 00.07% { JJ-88, 22, AdTd, AhTh, AsTs, A9s, KdTd, KhTh, KsTs, QJs, QdTd, QhTh, QsTs, T9s, 87s }

So your equity would be somewhere between 17% vs a very solid player to say 38% versus a player who overplays his hand or likes to semibluff. Average equity about 28%, so getting calling with 2.17 to 1 odds is about break even. So under these assumptions it would be EV neutral. Then the question is - do you want to add variance to your game and do you want to be seen as a looser caller?







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