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Old 11-09-2006, 09:24 PM
BobOjedaFan BobOjedaFan is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 8,600
Default Re: The Malloreon: GAME THREAD and FINAL ROLE DESCRIPTIONS

I'd estimate everytime I claim seer I actually am 33% of the time.

50% of the time I'm a Villager

27% of the time I'm a wolf.


So. There is a 33% chance I am telling the truth.
50% Chance I am faking as a Villager and strongly believe WdCBooks is a Wolf, in which case that means in this scenario WBooks is evil AT LEAST 30/50 times.
If I'm faking as a wolf, there is a 50% chance I'm naming WDCBooks as an evil when he ACTUALLY is one as a metagame strategy. So even if I am evil, Books is still evil 13.5/27 times I fake as a wolf.

Tabulating all of this.

There is a 76.5% chance WDCBooks is evil.
There is a 27% chance I am evil
33% Chance I am Seer
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