Re: The Malloreon: GAME THREAD and FINAL ROLE DESCRIPTIONS
I'd estimate everytime I claim seer I actually am 33% of the time.
50% of the time I'm a Villager
27% of the time I'm a wolf.
So. There is a 33% chance I am telling the truth.
50% Chance I am faking as a Villager and strongly believe WdCBooks is a Wolf, in which case that means in this scenario WBooks is evil AT LEAST 30/50 times.
If I'm faking as a wolf, there is a 50% chance I'm naming WDCBooks as an evil when he ACTUALLY is one as a metagame strategy. So even if I am evil, Books is still evil 13.5/27 times I fake as a wolf.
Tabulating all of this.
There is a 76.5% chance WDCBooks is evil.
There is a 27% chance I am evil
33% Chance I am Seer
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