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Old 11-08-2006, 10:28 AM
jon_1van jon_1van is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2002
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Default Re: catching perfect and folding

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Guess I disagree with everyone here.

Your raise on 3rd should be standard, as he could really easily steal here with anything, looking at a doubly dead ace and two deuces to act. This is further backed up by your description of villain, even though or perhaps because he sounds decent. Now when he comes back over you, it usually means he actually has a hand, probably queens, even given your dead door. I'd still continue because your hand is concealed, he could be getting a little overly busty with a slightly weaker hand, and the pot is now big enough that I want to see 5th at least.

4th I probably play fast because he won't believe you and I play a lot of flushed doorcards fast. You don't want a heart to come and kill your action here, but just calling doesn't really prevent that.

On 5th, given his reraise on 3rd you have to give him credit for trip queens most of the time. The question is what is your equity vs. that hand, and how does it compare to your pot odds?

Given your dead cards, looks like you are pretty close to a 4-1 dog. Assuming you'll want to call the river just in case, your corrected odds to see showdown are 8-3, so even given some uncertainty that he actually has the trips I think 5th is a fold.

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This was a very good post


(I 100% agree with your 4th street thoughts...posted about them before I read your post)
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