[bestcellar]

you have to look at this in terms of equity. UTG is pushing with literally any two, as the blinds are about to gobble him up. Gobbo is calling with a pair and is almost certainly a coinflip/ahead. I think if you do the math in terms of guaranteed prize money and the equity percentages if won or lost, this call actually makes a lot of sense.

75% UTG is pushing with a non-pair - Gobbo is a 50/50
20% UTG is pushing with an overpair - Gobbo is a 20/80
5% UTG is pushing with x2 non-pair. - Gobbo is a 75/25

(these are rough estimates)

If gobbo wins, he'll have 231k and be in second place
If gobbo loses, he'll have 156k and be in fourth place

(.75)(.50)231k + (.75)(.50)156k + (.20)(.20)231k + (.80)(.20)156k + (.05)(.75)231k + (.05)(.25)156k =

86.625K + 58.5k + 9.24k + 24.96k + 8.66k + 1.95k = 189.935k equity in the hand. Add to this the fact that Gobbo is guaranteed a larger prize if he knocks out 7th place and that is an easy call.

[censored], I don't even know if I did this rigth [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]