[Xhad]

Marquoz: I agree with a lot of the specific hands you give people, but I don't agree with your conclusion that it's worth showing down UI, or that we can give ourself more than 3ish outs.

Taking the second statement first, BB has 6x or 2 clubs or both. Nothing else makes sense. Part of the problem is that both of those draws taint our outs, but we don't know which one he has. This is something I haven't seen mentioned yet BTW; every one of our "outs" completes a 1card straight that beats us, and some of them also complete the flush, so we really stand to lose money on the river whether we're showing down UI or not, whereas there is no card that makes us want to go to war on the river.

UTG's range is a little wider than SB's because he's almost all-in. But this probably isn't "ZOMG LET'S STACK OFF WITH 33!!!!"; his stack on the flop was still such that he couldn't get all-in without help (if he called the flop, then you raised and SB 3bet and he capped, then it would make a little more sense). And if he would go this nuts with TT/99 UI postflop, why didn't he 3bet it preflop, or raise it preflop the first time? Not saying it's impossible but it's especially inconsistent to say that he's passive enough to limp preflop when he should raise, but aggro enough to overplay a pair this badly. Really UTG's range is something like flopped set/flopped straight, flush, or combo draw, possibly with the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

SB, again we have the problem of why does he go this nuts with a pair postflop but doesn't 3bet preflop? And why would he donk a draw on the turn into the flop capper? This is a set/2pair a huge majority of the time, and if you want to talk about your hidden outs against 2pair, again we're getting into reverse implied odds territory because we don't know which 2pair he has.

Now, it is true that there is an "idiot factor" at these limits where you have to assign a certain amount of uncertainty to any read, but against 3 players that effect diminishes by a ton. Ultimately, that's my issue with calling here; you have 2 opponents who are repping hands better than yours, and while against one aggressor you often can (have to) suck it up and call down "just in case" he has a draw or is doing something stupid. But against 2 or more opponents the "just in case" factor gets cancelled out tremendously, and is exacerbated by the fact that BB almost always has a draw, and is both tainting some/all of your outs and decreasing the likelihood that your two opponents are both on a draw.

EDIT: I had some maths for the last point but the conclusion seemed weird and counterintuitive and I just woke up not too long ago. I want to recheck it and post it later if it still looks right.