Re: 6000th Post. Let\'s Try This Hand Reading Thing Again
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Drzen,
Nice selective quoting
You quote
sure other hands are possible
My actual quote
Sure other hands are possible but it seems unlikely because he has not shown any interest to get a lot of money in the pot until the river when the flush card hit.
Pudge never said he has a flush 100% of the time but he as a flush a lot here.
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He said villain is *never* raising with a worse hand!
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Second you seem to think there is a contradiction to folding to a river bet that I said is almost always a value bet.
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No, I said there is a contradiction to saying that the bet has no fold equity when we folded!
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That makes sense, a value bet is almost always a better hand therefore we should fold.
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A value bet is almost always what the other person *thinks* is a better hand.
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third
If you think calling with a flush draw getting good odds is a mistake. But stacking off with tpnk in a 3 way pot isn't a leak you have to seriously evaluate your game.
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You said no one ever folds a flush draw on this flop. You did not say no one ever folds a flush draw to this action. Even so, I don't think the odds are "good". If a third heart falls on the turn, you're not likely to get another cent out of it (so your call is -EV). If it doesn't, another bet makes you fold (so your call is -EV).
And dude, way to miss the point! Betting again on the turn is not the same as putting your whole stack in.
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