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Old 11-03-2006, 12:27 AM
drzen drzen is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Donkeytown
Posts: 2,704
Default Re: 6000th Post. Let\'s Try This Hand Reading Thing Again

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This seems to be the underlying assumption of the eagles' guy's posts: that a flush is guaranteed to rake in big money whenever you hit with it. But even in this hand, the guy is not stacking us with a made flush, if he has it

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1. We don't need to stack him to get value if he has a flush he has made enough money from us that his flop call is fine.

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You're working from results backwards. If the turn had not been an ace and you'd bet again, he's not making his money, he is folding. He got lucky.

You said that no one should fold a flush draw on this flop. But how often can you continue after another bet on the turn? I generally assume if I have an FD that the flop bettor will fire again at most turns. How many times will that mean missing with your flush draw, for how much money, and how much will you make when you do hit? You made it this time, but how many times for how much will you make it?

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2. We are better than most people the average donk will donate more money if we are drawing to a flush.

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I find that most "donks" don't give value for a flush. You need them to have made a decent hand too. I agree that the way this hand has turned out, the flushholder would make money from a bad player. But he would consider himself lucky, a/ that an ace came on the turn, which let him have a free shot at his flush and b/ that the hapless donk hit his kicker on the river. I don't count on that happening every time I chase a flush!
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