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Old 11-02-2006, 11:36 PM
microbet microbet is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: fighting the power
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Default Re: 6000th Post. Let\'s Try This Hand Reading Thing Again

Nice post.

At 30 bbs I'm not sure K5s is a good completing from the SB with one limper. You don't really have implied odds for hitting more than top pair and you see how exiting top pair is here. Remember, no one has shown any strength and there's no reason to think you are likely to stack someone just because you hit the hand hard.

You say something about getting value from the limper. I don't think limpers are generally inclined to bluff at the pot. Generally, they are passive and have the need to call more than the need to bluff. If he doesn't have you beat, I think you are going to be better off betting into him than trying to let him bet.

That said, I think checking is good because you hand isn't. Leading and then shutting down might be better though, as (especially in a STT) it's just fine to take down the pot when you are ahead.

On the river you say something about a bet folding better hands. I don't think that's likely. Also, you mention controlling the pot. You aren't making the pot smaller by betting. If villain has a better hand than you he will most likely raise. It isn't a block. If you bet the river, I think it's for value.

As far as hand reading goes, I think you did a good job, but I would be careful not to think I could really read a random limper in a $27. There are just too many times where you will end up shaking your head thinking "how can he have that?"

The minraise on the river is interesting. It's something that I'd love to figure out, but it seems to be pretty well divided between "please call me" and "I think you are FOS."
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