[ncboiler]

[ QUOTE ]
ill call up dan dorfmann and make my guess.

seriously though if you could provide a link to a good projection site it might be useful for people to bet off this baseline as opposed to randomly guessing.


i follow fairly closely but dont really feel qualified to guess. i would vote dems beat the consensus but id like to see what the consensus is.

[/ QUOTE ]

Barrons had an article last week in which they projected the overall outcome of the races in both the House and Senate. Their projections are based on the size of each candidates "War Chest" suggesting that the size of the war chest demonstrates the size of the grass roots support each candidate possesses. This method predicts the winner of each race at a success rate of 93% but most recently candidates with the biggest war chest win at a rate of 98%. The final prediction;

The House stays in the GOP's hands by a margin of 8 seats with a worst case scenario being a GOP margin of 1 seat.

In the Senate the process predicts the GOP will have 52 seats.

We will see how accurate it this year.