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Old 11-02-2006, 07:45 PM
Marquoz Marquoz is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 238
Default Re: AA - I _know_ I\'m beat, where do I fold?

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About the actual hand though, if you guys think your club outs are good and that you might have the best hand, give me your ranges.

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To me, the flop and turn action has always looked like sets/two pair/overpairs weaker than ours/a flush draw/an unlikely made straight/a straight draw. I feel that we're either ahead of or have the outs to draw against the following hands:

Pocket pairs: 44 55 77 (sets, we're behind) 88 99 TT (overpairs, we're ahead already). JJ - AA is unlikely given PF action but not impossible--I've seen all kinds of odd plays with these hands from time to time, especially from blinds. Against the pocket pairs that we trail, any ace or our gutshot wins if we're behind. If someone's getting super frisky with 66 (middle pair + OESD), we win unimproved or if an ace falls, but the gutshot loses and an 8 also kills us.

Two pair, probably suited but perhaps not (and no club flush draw possible with them either way): 75 74 45. We're behind but we win if the board pairs without giving them a boat, if an ace comes, or if the gutshot hits.

Flush/straight draws: obviously, we're ahead of most draws on the turn, though if they hit we're toast. We're drawing dead against made straights and 86c and 63c (since they also have a made straight on top of the flush draw), and any two clubs containing a 6 is a bad hand to be up against since it kills our gutshot. So is any straight draw with a 6.

I think our chances of either being ahead or drawing out are sufficient to call the turn. On the river, when it's just one more bet to us and flush and straight draws didn't come in, it's also a call. We probably lose to a set but beat overplayed overpairs or missed draws often enough to justify it (IMO, anyway).
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