I realize hedging is generally –EV but my question is when in you guys opinion is hedging okay. Here is an example of a hedge bet I just made live betting:
I made the first bet on the Pats a couple hours before game time.
I made the hedge bet when the Pats were up 7-0 early in the 2nd quarter and they were 1st and 10 at the Vikings 24.
This is a large play for me. I was pretty much taking a shot after having a great weekend. My typical bet size is $200 but I wager up to $500 on some games and money lines. I’m up $1200 the last couple days after a 3rd straight week of profit and decided to just take a shot here. I’m okay if lose this, it just puts me back where I was Friday.
The answer might be: “Don’t take shots like this”. With that aside though is this a situation where hedging might be okay. I appreciate any serious responses. I’m wondering if I’m making a big mistake but in my mind it seemed to make sense to hit this right then and there once I seen the +460
Thoughts?