Re: Do I pay off too much?
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Hand 1 seems close. I don't think you're ahead that often at all. I could really go either way.
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It's an easy call and it's really not that close. You state the key factor when you say you don't think hero is ahead that often. That implies that the hero is ahead sometimes. If I've done the math correctly, there are 12 BB in the pot after the SB bets, so the hero is getting 12:1 odds on a river call. Therefore, winning 1 out of 13 hands is sufficient to make the call break even. If hero is ahead any more often than that, the call is profitable. I think it's pretty clear that hero will be ahead more than 1/13 times, so the call is clear.
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