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Old 10-27-2006, 01:43 AM
BBB BBB is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 65
Default Re: Arnold Snyder\'s Response to Sklansky\'s Article is Up

My apologies to all who read my earlier post; I did throw that even-money/worst of it comment in hastily and carelessly.

At the time, I was thinking that, for example, it would be worth it to take 100-95 odds against for all my chips if it were guaranteed that, if I won, I would then be offered 2-1 odds for all of my chips (I would quadruple up 32.5% of the time). So my chip-EV of this gamble would be 130%.

But my hypothetical is very flawed. There's no guarantee that you're going to find a 2-1 spot for all those chips (and if you do, but he has you covered, you can probably find more chances later to get the rest of his chips). More likely, you'll find several occasions to make +EV decisions for smaller amounts of chips at a time, which you would be able to make whether or not you had doubled up earlier (not to mention that risking going broke getting 130-100 is not a huge bonanza for an above-average player tournament player with a fairly deep stack anyway).
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