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Old 10-26-2006, 07:39 PM
gumpzilla gumpzilla is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
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Default Re: Bottom set TT in 3 bet 3 way flop

I think this hand is worth looking at. "Never fold a flopped set" is great and all, but at first glance this looks like the kind of situation where I'd at least be thinking about it.

What's a reasonable range for a SB 3-bet against an UTG bet and call (and it's a small 3-bet, too, which seems a little weird to me)? Let's say we put him on 99+, AQ-AK, AJs. Then we have 70% equity. Now let's say he only bets out with JJ+, AK, AJs. We still have 60% equity. At first I was agonizing a little bit about what I'd do here, but looking at those numbers there's no ditching this hand. I think the key is that the AK, JJ and AA combinations are so much more frequent than the sets or straights (and you have outs against the straight) that your equity is pretty good here.

The only question I have is whether AK folds to a push. It should, and that's the only thing I don't like about a push. On the other hand, JJ calls a push and probably doesn't stack off unless it hits otherwise, so it's probably a wash. So push is fine, call and induce another bet is fine.
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