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Old 10-26-2006, 03:52 AM
pineapple888 pineapple888 is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Getting rivered by idiots
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Default Re: (2-way) bubble calling situation

[ QUOTE ]
The way to handle these bubble situations are always pretty similar:

1. Calculate your tournament EV if you fold.
2. Calclate your tournament EV if you call and win.
3. From that calculate how often you must win for the call to be better than the fold.

In this case your EV if you fold will be roughly 13 $ (I've made an excel sheet that does the calculations for me - and I'm assuming payout to be 50-30-20).

If you call and win your tournament EV will be rouhly 25,5 $.

This means you must win around 52% of the time for the call to be correct, and against 2 random cards that means hands like J7s (52,3%) K4 (52,3%) and better.

So, you should call very often in this spot ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Well it's not nearly this simple, there are bubble dynamics/critical paths to work through, we just had a huge thread on a 1K hand that was somewhat similar. A straight ICM/SNGPT calculation clearly overrates calling here, possibly by quite a bit.
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