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Old 10-25-2006, 01:04 AM
Pokey Pokey is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Using the whole Frist, doc?
Posts: 3,712
Default Bluff attempt -- good or bad?

I've been gradually trying to increase the frequency with which I abuse weak-tight players. Today I had a particularly severe example, and I wanted to know if this looks reasonable or not.

<font color="blue">Villain is 38/16/1.7 over 1300+ hands. I haven't really gotten out of line in this session. I've been playing about a 29/18 game, but the only time I went all-in this session I had KK. (three-bet big preflop and called by 64s, all-in on a flop of 764 -- bastard. Opponent was not this hand's villain.)</font>

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Pokey: $101.10
CO: $100
Button: $199.80
SB: $194.95
BB: $133.50

Pre-flop: (5 players) Pokey is UTG with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Pokey raises to $4</font>, CO calls, 3 folds.

<font color="blue">Good for a call, good for a raise.</font>

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($9.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Pokey bets $6</font>, CO calls.

<font color="blue">Bottom pair, but TOP KICKER! Meh, call it a c-bet.</font>

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($21.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Pokey bets $15</font>, CO calls.

<font color="blue">I feel that I'm only winning this one with relentless aggression, since my hand strength is pretty cruddy.</font>

River: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($51.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Pokey bets $75 (putting villain all-in)</font>....

<font color="blue">All the draws missed, and even a T has to be afraid of a big river bet when that K falls. Unless villain has a hand better than a pair of kings, I'd say he's likely to fold. That's going to happen more than 40% of the time here, right?

Right??</font>
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