[Gildwulf]

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I just think that tournaments with 5000+ entrants are pretty much crap-shoots.

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So wrong.

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didn't someone put the math at a good player having an expectation to make the final table 1/500 times in a field that size?

The reason the best players keep making these final tables is because they are good AND they play every single tournament known to man above $100 buyin every single day.