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Old 10-18-2006, 04:43 PM
Paul Thomson Paul Thomson is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: donking it up NL200
Posts: 3,589
Default Re: TPTK facing a min raise and a strong turn bet

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Basically what the above said is: "I call, call and call. I don't know what you have and I don't know if I can win. But I call and hope to collect money most of the time."

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Wow, are you good at either misrepresenting or misunderstanding what he actually said.

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Bilbo -

What do you think about the hand, though. Do you call?

And if you call, how big of a bet are you willing to call on the river. If the villain bets big on the river, it's either the nuts or he 3-barrelled with a minicheck-raise on the flop (which i've seen before).

I'd probably call somewhere upto a half bet on river, depending on a few timing tells and what not.

I understand what the poster says about their not many hands the villain could have that beats us on this board.

PREFLOP ACTION:
Most villains will reraise QQ & KK preflop. Some villains might call with AA, but I think that's less likely than a reraise. There's only one way to make JJ. Villain almost surely doesn't have a 2, unless it's the random A2.

However JT and JA are probably likely in his hand range.

So a flush draw does make a large portion of the villains hand. Of course we don't recommend check-raising the flop and leading big on the turn, but it's a ballsy semibluff from the villain. For the villain to do this with JT, he have to be pretty bad. To do it with JA, not so bad.

However, if he leads big on most rivers, I think we have to be behind quite a bit of the time. Sure he could be on air, but he'd need huge balls. I think we could be splitting on the river a decent % of the time.
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