Re: TPTK facing a min raise and a strong turn bet
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NL 100
Stack sizes = 130
Hero raises in middle position with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
All fold, till villian calls in the big blind.
Flop comes 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Vilian checks, I bet 6, villian raises to 12. I call.
Turn comes 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Villian bets 28 into a 32 dollar pot. Fold right?
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Right.
If he's really tight, as you say, then he has KK/QQ/JJ/AJ/22, and that's about it. I don't see a tight player calling a pfr from the BB with KJ/QJ/A2s/K2s. I don't see a tight villain overplaying a hand like AcQc/AcKc OOP, either, although that is a possibility if villain is tight preflop but very aggressive post flop. I also don't see why villain would play an underpair like TT/99/88/77 this way on the flop, unless he was trying to snap off a cb from you and lucked out on the turn with a set of 9s.
Check/min-raise on the flop + potish-sized lead on the turn is usually a set, or in this case a boat w/ JJ as the most likely hand.
I think, given the reads, folding is ok.
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