Re: 33 days until the National Championship is decided!
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how possible is it if the loser of this game still makes the title game as a rematch?
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I can't speak to the math of the computers and whatnot, but given the nature of the polls, it'd take quite a close loss for it to happen. You'd need the loser to fall to #3 at worst, then have any of the 1-loss teams with strong SOS's to lose again. I'd peg it at less than 10%, and I think the odds that these are in fact the two best teams in the country to be quite a bit greater than that, but such is life.
What I wonder about is if ND runs the table (not at all unlikely, even though I'm not convinced they are a top 10 team) and Michigan loses, does the absurdity of "when you lose matters" knock Michigan below ND in the polls and thus out of the championship? You can play with similar scenarios, with, say, the SEC teams as well. That's the one aspect of this system I dislike.
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