[candab]

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1) 5.5BB/100 at 2/4 is not sustainable. It was gonna come down eventually. 2BB/100 is pretty solid. You should be happy with that. That being said....

2)I'm confused. If you've lost $800 playing 2/4 how is your winrate 2.0BB/100???

3) If the whole difference between your "profit v. a loss" as you say, is one hand where you got rivered, then you haven't played enough hands. Which begs the question, how many hands is this sample size?

4) To answer your original question. -200BB downswing is pretty rough but they happen. There has been some debate about this topic but the general consensus seems to be that -300BB is the biggest downswing that would be caused by variance.

Truthfully, without more info, it sounds like you got extremely lucky at 2/4 and moved up way too soon.

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Just to clarify, the $800 I've lost on 2/4 recently is just what I've lost on my downswing. I made quite a bit more than that on my upswing, with a chunk of my 2/4 profit going towards taking shots at 3/6.

I figure I've lost about $200 on various small MTTs and NL cash games, so that would account for the discrepancy between $800 and $1000.

And my profit v loss on that river hand was on my last session only. It just seems that variance is kicking me in the butt right now and those are the hard-luck hands I've been getting lately that have kept me from posting winning sessions.

Since the beginning of the year, I'm running +2BB/100 on the 2/4 tables on a sample of over 15K hands.

And I completely agree with you on the "luck factor" of being up 5.5BB early on, which is exactly why I tried to break the 3/6 barrier. My BR at that point was able to sustain my shots at 3/6 (I'm at -3.5BB/100 at 3/6 over a small sample), and I figured if I could get some good exposure there and break through, I'd be on the next move upward. It just seems that now I'm getting kicked in the jewels for trying!