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Old 01-30-2006, 06:41 PM
woodguy woodguy is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Running good, playing bad
Posts: 4,647
Default Re: BORGATA Main Event Hand

a) if I push he can't fold - imagine the 2+2 post from the villian's perspective: I'm playing the Borgata ME w/ XX, MP raises to 4k, I reraise to 14K w/ 19K behind, he pushes, 19k to me w/ like 50K in the pot - do I fold here?? I figure that gets flamed worse than my call/fold whiff play. true, but you never know, faced with putting their TOURNEY LIFE on the line, people do dumb things

b) given the range I think he has I think my dominating him is as likely as him dominating me (I don't think he has AJ but he might, I don't think he has KK but he might) and so I'm pretty much looking at the light end of a flip the overwhelming majority of the timebeing suited makes it closer to 50/50

e) if I push (and he can't fold) it's 29k into a pot w/ about 10k of dead money so I'm getting better than I need to take the light end of the flip but not much better and I'm doing it w/ more than 50% of my remaining stack - why would I want to flip for that much in a marginal EV spot at this stage of the tourney? the future chips you gain with a bigger stack have to be taken into consideration. Most people when looking at this only weigh broke vs. the chips they gain, but the chips you gain will have an effect of making future chips easier to get. Also, when playing a hand, it is important to play the hand correctly. Making a sub-optimal play because you do not want to risk chips to make the proper play is a big leak. You end up looking weak at the talbe and getting run over, as well as draining your stack looking for the mythical "better spot"

f) true enough - but since I already know what I'm doing post flop I don't think I run a risk of getting outplayed or of outhinking myself here a K flop, he folds his QQ, he's playing correctly and you left $$ on the table.......flop comes Q high, you check he puses his TT, which he would have folded to a flop bet......serioiusly there will be enough $$$ in the middle to make pushing your AK n the flop into any flop correct, why give him the chance to also play correct by folding on the flop.

q) (I made up this letter) - I'm sure he's pot committed unless the flop comes absolutely horrible and even then he'll probably get it in - I'm getting all his chips when I hit and only lose 10K when I don't - much better than the 2-1 I need on the flop; when I whiff I still have an average stack - happy to take a relatively cheap shot at stacking him 1/3 of the time than an expensive shot that stacks him 45% of the time assuming you get all his chips when you hit is wrong, and you will have the odds to call his bet with AK given the range.....
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