Re: BORGATA Main Event Hand
Since pushing looks like the worst option to me - I figured call/folding a whiff would get flamed ;-) - let me test my thought process against some of Woods ideas and others I saw and find the leak:
a) if I push he can't fold - imagine the 2+2 post from the villian's perspective: I'm playing the Borgata ME w/ XX, MP raises to 4k, I reraise to 14K w/ 19K behind, he pushes, 19k to me w/ like 50K in the pot - do I fold here?? I figure that gets flamed worse than my call/fold whiff play.
b) given the range I think he has I think my dominating him is as likely as him dominating me (I don't think he has AJ but he might, I don't think he has KK but he might) and so I'm pretty much looking at the light end of a flip the overwhelming majority of the time
e) if I push (and he can't fold) it's 29k into a pot w/ about 10k of dead money so I'm getting better than I need to take the light end of the flip but not much better and I'm doing it w/ more than 50% of my remaining stack - why would I want to flip for that much in a marginal EV spot at this stage of the tourney?
f) true enough - but since I already know what I'm doing post flop I don't think I run a risk of getting outplayed or of outhinking myself here
q) (I made up this letter) - I'm sure he's pot committed unless the flop comes absolutely horrible and even then he'll probably get it in - I'm getting all his chips when I hit and only lose 10K when I don't - much better than the 2-1 I need on the flop; when I whiff I still have an average stack - happy to take a relatively cheap shot at stacking him 1/3 of the time than an expensive shot that stacks him 45% of the time
Thanks for the thoughts.
HC
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