View Single Post
  #2  
Old 10-11-2006, 03:27 PM
Bruce D Bruce D is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: frolicking in 6 max
Posts: 593
Default Re: Did I win or does it even matter?

Fold the flop. The sb bet into the preflop raiser and then the raiser has told him to go screw himself. There are 13 bets in the middle. Its 2 to you, and you don't know that it won't be another two when it gets back around. So if it doesn't get reraised and capped, its 14:2 for your money. You absolutely need a J here. If you notice, the villian has a 1 percent pfr %. That means AA. Therefore he limps with all other hands. He has a strong holding limping and betting into the preflop raiser. AK, AQ, AJ, KK, QQ. He isn't afraid and that is disconcerting. He could already have a straight in which case you have only 3 outs.

If it gets capped you are paying 4:18, or getting 4.5:1. Previously you were getting 7:1 at best. You are drawing thin to a J which you may have 4 outs at best. You need 10.8:1. It's too thin. Fold.

The sb bet on the turn screams I have a really good hand. Villian is passive. When he bets into an open field he wants your money and is VERY certain he is going to get it.

You now have odds to draw to your J, but.. the board is now flush coordinated. A J of spades could be garbage. That coupled with you could be drawing dead. So you have 4 outs, one of them could be tainted and another could already be in sb hand. So that gives you 2.5 outs at best. Its still a fold.

Your raise on the river is dangerous. You could be already dead to a FH. I suspect the villian has at least a straight at this point and he isn't folding it, and you aren't adding any value. I call this river, thank my lucky stars if it holds and turn off my computer when the blinds come around.
Reply With Quote