[Wilson]

ur 4th street bet is pretty much neva gonna get a fold from villain.

i'm makin a few assumptions here... reasonable ones i hope:

1. villain isn't clueless.
2. villain had "smthg" to enter on 3rd, at worst 3 cards to a ragged 7, probably better.
3. villain assumes ur sayin u've got a pair of jacks.
4. villain doesn't necessarily believe u, though he'll keep in mind that itz possible.

i'm gonna give villain the worst possible hand he could have, (5c2s)7h n try to look at this from the his pt of view...

"he's tellin me he's got jacks, he might. but i doubt he's got anythg better than jacks. against jacks, that king i caught makes my hand, (52)7Kr, a 2-1 dog. if he doesn't have jacks i'm probably in the lead, or not much of a dog. there's $6 in the pot, costs me $2 to call, givin me 3-1. i'm at least seein the next card!"

so couple all this with the fact that villain's hand is likely to be better than the one i gave him and that he'll think ur tryin to buy the pot cos he checked, he's almost always gonna peel!

does this sound reasonable?